Well, at least it's not getting any worse...

   For real estate brokers, "how's the market doing?" has replaced "What do you think my house is worth?" as the most asked question they are likely to hear.  So how does one answer that?  Well, faithful readers of this space may have noticed that we haven't posted for a couple weeks.  No we were not someplace warm sipping a pina colada, we were right here, showing property and talking with clients, both Buyers and Sellers.

   I certainly don't mean to give anyone the impression that the market has gone crazy, far from it.  Buyers are being very careful, as they should be and where they may have looked at 8-10 homes previously they look at 20-30 homes now.  Of course part of that is a function of there simply being more inventory on the market. They ask for information about all of the neighborhoods and communities where these homes are located.  They ask for careful analysis of what they can expect the value of their potential purchase to be in the future and we're happy to provide them with that.

   Sellers ask hard questions, also.  No one puts their home up for sale in the face of the unrelenting negative media reports such as we experience now unless they are absolutely serious. They want the clearest possible analysis of their homes value and how they can expect the market to react to it.

   Meanwhile on a macro scale, the Fed cuts rates and pumps liquidity into the banking system. The Administration and Congress actually do something and pass a stimulus package. The unscrupulous mortgage brokers go out of business leaving only the most competent still standing like wheat separated from chaff. And the business cycle keeps on turning.

   Slowly, methodically we work our way out of this mess.  We take 2 steps forward and 1 step back.  Today the CPI report looks good, tomorrow oil prices will rise on a weak dollar but then next week the Fed will cut rates again.

   But pent up demand, low rates and just maybe a light at the end of the tunnel and all of a sudden it feels like we can answer that constant question with "Well, at least it's not getting any worse."  Now truly is the time to buy and for those individuals who have been trying to time the market and wait for the bottom, I'm afraid some will be kicking themselves someday over not buying now.

Jim Cosgrove   

Maine Real Estate Report for June

    For the month of June just past the trend remains the same.  Overall the market remains down but here at Newcastle Square Realty business is brisk. First the statistics.

   June of 2006 saw 110 closed residential sides in Lincoln County for a dollar volume of just over $36 million.  In June of 2007 we (that is the market as represented by the Maine Statewide Multiple Listing Service, broken down for Lincoln County) had 88 closed residential sides with a dollar volume of just over $23 million.  In 2006 the Associates here at NSR closed 8 sides for a little over $4 million and this year we did 19 sides with a volume of almost $8 million.  Now here's the difference and pay attention because this is important. In 2006 our average sold price was $502,000.  This year our average sold price is $407,684.  Just as we've been advising our clients since the first of the year, the market is down 20% from it's high point in the summer of '05.  County wide the average sold price is $264,602. But, homes are selling.  This is not the early 90's when nothing was selling, at any price.  This time, the market has readjusted but there is still a market. Priced right a home will sell.

   Right now in Lincoln County, Maine there are 807 residences for sale.  If you've been thinking of making the move to the Mid Coast area of Maine, you will never have more choice and at prices not seen for the last several years.  Ocean front homes, lakeside camps, country cottages and even in-town condominiums are available.  Why not call and make an appointment to speak with one of our knowledgeable brokers about making your dreams come true?

Jim Cosgrove

Maine Real Estate Report for May

    I'm late with the May Market Report. Had I known just how many of you look for this report every month I would have been more diligent about getting it up on the blog at the beginning of the month. Thank you for your emails and please accept my apologies.  We're more than halfway through the month of June and I'm just getting to it now which I thought was going to be a market report in itself.

   Driving into the office I was writing this in my head and planned to say that it has been so busy in our market that I simply didn't have time to write blog posts.  I was going to run the numbers and print those statistics here to show you exactly how the market had turned for the better.

   Well, I guess that's why we need to look at the numbers.  For the month of May in 2006 there were 60 closed sides of residential properties in Lincoln County with a total value of just over $15 million.  This year, 2007, there were only 40 closed sides of residential units with a value of just under $12 million.

  So why do we perceive that market has changed?  Recently we've seen several "multiple offer" situations, that is when more than one party at a time is offering on the same property.  Often this will cause a property to sell for more than the original asking price.  Recently we have seen no offers coming through with contingencies that prevent the sale form moving forward until after the Buyers home has sold.  These are all signs of a good market.  But, the biggest reason we perceive a better market is because we have been busy.  Very busy.  At this point in 2006 Newcastle Square Realty had closed 43 sides for $11,300,000 in sales.  This year Newcastle Square has closed 61 sides for a total of $18,200,000 and leads all agencies in Lincoln County in sales. There is not another agency on the Pemaquid peninsula that has closed even $5 million worth of sales!

  What this means is that the 15 professional brokers affiliated with Newcastle Square work 70 hour weeks and have totally unbalanced personal lives. Most of us walk around with cell phones glued to our ears, trying to send a fax while we check email and look for the keys for our next showing. Very unhealthy.  But ask yourself this; when you wish to sell or buy what may be one of your biggest assets, who do you want working for you?  A highly successful workaholic?  Or do you want to see your real estate broker sitting for hours in the local coffee shop or advertising their part time job in the paper?

   This remains a challenging environment for selling property.  Don't you want to work with the very best? Call today, we're in the office.

Jim Cosgrove 

Maine Real Estate Market Report

    A quarter of the way through May and I'm just now getting a chance to post the April market report of single family homes in Lincoln County.  That's a blog post in itself, we've been busy, May is looking good!  But we'll have to wait until next month for that report.

   Many of us consider April of '07 to be one of the worst weather months in recent history, that has been well documented in this space so no need to recap further.  But it is important to point out that we are looking at closings in this report and closings are actually more indicative of sales that were made 30 to 60 days prior.  So while this is the actual sales report for April, we could just as easily look at it as the measure of the late winter period.

   For the month of April, in Lincoln County we had 52 closed sides of residential properties for a dollar volume of $12,294,600.  In April of '06 we had 36 closed sides for a dollar volume of $13,760,930.  This is pretty consistent with our anecdotal evidence of lots of activity this year but at lower prices. This also follows on the heels of a good March and a poor February.

   I'm afraid this is pretty much how our market is going to be for awhile.  Up and down.  Buyers are looking at more properties than they ever have in the past and are slow to actually make an offer.  They have a lot of inventory to look at.  Sellers are starting to adjust to the new market reality and are pricing accordingly.  The stock market has been quite healthy lately and those Sellers who won't be immediately buying back into the real estate market are anxious to put their money to work there.  Those Sellers who will be buying see reduced prices and are anxious to move into their new home.  The only people who are dissatisfied are those that are comparing prices with what their neighbor sold for 2 or 3 years ago.

   If you're a Seller, ask yourself if you want to be counted in the "Sold" statistics or the "on market" figures.  Then call your Broker and ask for an updated market analysis using recent sold comparables.  Remember what you were trying to accomplish when you put your home on the market. Then take the action that will allow you to accomplish your goal.

Jim Cosgrove

Nobleboro Maine Real Estate Report

    Properties in the town of Nobleboro are some of the best values on the market in our area right now. Sitting just north of Damariscotta-Newcastle on coastal Route 1, Nobleboro has within it or borders several lakes including Damariscotta Lake and Pemaquid Lake both of which feature year round homes and vacation cottages on their shores. There are also nice country homes, typically with more acreage than you might find in some of the other towns.

The graph below is drawn from information provided by the Maine Multiple Listing Service.

The average value of a home in Nobleboro has been increasing steadily for the last 10 years from a low of $103,725 in 1997 to $271,129 in 2005. There was a decline of the average price in 2006 but the average value of a home in Nobleboro is still significantly higher now than 5 years ago. If you look at the graph you will notice that in the last 10 years a low sales volume has been followed by a rebound.  While it is only the beginning of May the figures for 2007 look very strong.  For 2007 the average price of a home in Nobleboro is $450,000 but this is skewed by the fact that Newcastle Square Realty recently sold a home on Damariscotta Lake for over $900,000. 

   There are currently 34 residential properties for sale on the open market in Nobleboro. Given the average number of homes that sell in Nobleboro every year it will be important for those homeowners who wish to sell this year to be priced competitively.  Even though our market appears to be coming out of it's doldrums there is a lot of inventory on the market right now.  But with higher prices just down the road in Damariscotta and Newcastle, Nobleboro will continue to be the town for value conscious home buyers to carefully consider.

   Please feel free to email or call me if you would like to discuss the Nobleboro real estate market in greater detail.

Tom Field   

Maine Real Estate Market Report

    Continuing with our series of monthly market reports for real estate in Lincoln County, here's a brief snapshot of what transpired in the month of March.  According to the Maine Real Estate Information Service (MREIS) which manages our Statewide Multiple Listing Service there were 66 single family residential sides closed in March with a total dollar volume of $21,709,744.  This compares quite favorably to March of 2006 when only 40 total sides closed with a dollar volume of $9,729,800.

   This compares even more favorably with our report for February, where you will recall both sales and dollar volume were off around 50% from '06 with a paltry 22 closed sides for the month in '07. January of this year and December of last were similarly gloomy with volume off in the 25% range.

   So what are we to make of this resurgence?   Before we get too excited we should look carefully at just where in the market these sales are taking place.  The highest priced sale for the month was a property on Damariscotta Lake brokered by Newcastle Square Realty that sold for $925,000 after 337 days on the market.  There were only 3 other sales over $500,000. for the entire month!  A home in Boothbay sold for $870,000 after 231 days on market, we brokered a sale in Sheepscot at $650,000 after 171 days on market and another property in Boothbay sold for $605,000 after an astounding 400 days on market.  Every other sale was under $500,000 with 10 homes selling under $200,000.

   The homes that are selling now are for the most part selling to people who already have some connection to the area and do not represent an influx of new residents.  It remains to be seen if the retiree's and second home buyers from out of state will be able to buy this year or if we will have to wait out the market downturn to our south. When they do come back they will find a market loaded with inventory and plenty of properties to choose from.

   I said last month that, "we are in a period of readjustment and we will have up and down months for some time". I still believe this to be true.  The job market locally is very good, our biggest employer, Bath Iron Works is actually calling laid off employees back to work.  Reasonably priced, average homes will sell and there will be some movement at the upper end. But gone are the days when brokers could tell someone the price they wanted to hear and still have a chance that the home would sell.  Several companies are learning that the hard way and unfortunately so are their clients.  Some of them don't even appear in the stats for March as they had no sales.  Before you list your home for sale be sure and ask the broker you're talking with to tell you exactly how their company is doing in this challenging environment.

   If you're ready to sell there's no secret and no magic formula.  Put your house in the best possible condition (email me for a free copy of our Market Preparation Guide), price it sensibly and hire the top company in town to market it for you.  Newcastle Square Realty brokers are standing by.

Jim Cosgrove

    

Maine Real Estate Market Report

    Last month we looked at real estate sales for Lincoln County, Maine and compared actual sales, as measured by the Maine Real Estate Information Service (our Statewide MLS), for the months of December and January in both 2006 and 2007.  Sales were off but while dollar volume was off by almost 25% we saw that actual sales were only off by 8%.  This was somewhat encouraging and many in our industry saw this as a sign that the "soft landing" that we had all been hoping for had occurred and things would soon be back to the way they were in '04 and '05.

   Now February is behind us and a quick look at the raw data for that month suggests that maybe our exuberance was irrational.  In Lincoln County for the month of February 2007 there were 22 closed sides with a total dollar volume of $7,378,000.  For the same month last year there were 42 closed sides with a dollar volume of $11,627,000.  Inventory continues to climb and average days on market has increased, too.

   Statistically speaking this is way too small of a sample to make the kinds of predictions that people much smarter than I make all of the time.  Was the increased activity at the end of the year the beginning of a better market or the "dead cat bounce"  of a market at the bottom?  My perception is that we are in a period of readjustment and that we will have up and down months for some time.  Todays market is not bad because of some economic calamity like a large employer leaving the area.  Our market is primarily driven by retirees and second home buyers.  While this time of year is traditionally slower than others I think the bigger problem is that our buyers have usually just sold a property.  Because of that they have adjusted to the new market realities, i.e. lower prices.  Our sellers are still adjusting.  Those properties that are priced realistically for todays market and not the 2005 market are selling.

   Quite simply the law of supply and demand is at work here and I'd refer you to Adam Smith for a more in depth analysis of how that works but suffice it to say, price rules.  If your property is not priced correctly, there is no place that we can advertise, no magic phrase we can use, no picture we can take that will make it sell.

   If you are thinking of selling your home and would like an objective and realistic idea of where you fit in todays market to help in your decision making please contact one of our professional brokers for a confidential analysis today.

Jim Cosgrove

Lincoln County Real Estate Report

    The final figures are in and the Winner is...Newcastle Square Realty Associates! Once again Newcastle Square Realty is the top selling real estate agency in our area. We are very grateful to all of the good people of the greater Damariscotta - Pemaquid Peninsula area who put their faith in us when deciding who they wanted to help them when they either sold or acquired what for many was their biggest financial asset.

    It is very gratifying to see that we led in all categories of sales including dollar volume and transactions handled, where we had a higher number than any other two area agencies combined.  We are especially pleased that our success was spread over the entire spectrum of real estate as we never wanted to be known as one of those snooty offices where regular people didn't feel welcome when they walked in our door.  We did have the largest sale in our area, a saltwater farm in South Bristol. We were the top selling agency in the category of million dollar plus properties. But, we also brokered the sale of more $200,000 to $500,000 homes in Damariscotta, Newcastle and Nobleboro than any other company at the same time that we handled the most waterfront property in Bristol, South Bristol and Bremen. Finding everyone and anyone the right property to fit their needs is our passion.

   What is most gratifying though is the recognition by our peers, by those in the brokerage community, that Newcastle Square Realty is the place to be  if they want to be at the top of their profession.  When we started at this agency our goal was to have only the very best brokers, to create an environment of mutual trust and support and to give them everything they needed so that they could offer their clients the best possible real estate experience.  If you want to know what agency top brokers think is the best just look to see where they work. They are all independent contractors and they vote with their feet.

   So Thank You!  We will continue to do our best to earn your trust and your business.  We look forward to serving our friends and neighbors in 2007, those that are here now and those who are coming.

   Oh, the pictures?  I was going to put in a group picture of all of us but couldn't get everyone together, they're all too busy!  These are a few other folks who are or were pretty good at what they do, too.

Jim Cosgrove