Everyone I meet has an opinion about the local mid coast Maine real estate market. They are also very glad, indeed, eager to share that opinion with me. That's fine, after all everyone is entitled to their opinion. I just wish that they would try to look at actual facts before they they form and promulgate their opinions. Regurgitating what one hears on a cable or radio talk show does not, in my book count as an informed opinion. We should all remember that in this day and age of the internet, satellite radio and cable tv, the content on those venues is more often that not simply filler. As opposed to the informed fact based information available here on the mainecoastproperties blog of course.
This morning I was treated to not one but two opinions. One fellow stopped me on the street to tell me that he knew, because apparently he has inside information, he knew that the real estate market had a lot further to fall. As far as I know he does not plan to purchase real estate any time soon but I think that, just in case he wanted me to know that I'd better not be trying to trick him into buying any real estate unless the market was at rock bottom.
The second opinion I heard was from a potential client, calling from out of state. He has never been here, knows no one who lives here, thinks he might like to live here, but is worried that he has missed the bottom of the market and now might have to pay more that he might have had to. In neither case was I, the long time Main Street real estate professional, asked my opinion. Do these people go to the Doctor and tell him what their disease is?
If I had been asked here is what I could have told them, based on actual facts. At the height of the most recent real estate bull market, in 2006, here in Lincoln County, Maine, 390 homes were sold by those real estate agencies participating in our Multiple Listing System. In 2007 that number dropped to 370 and by 2008 had dropped further to 285. It held steady at 285 in 2009. In January of 2008 there were slightly less than 900 homes for sale in the county and in January just past there were just under 700 homes listed for sale.
Now forming an opinion based on the fact that homes sales held steady for two years and inventory levels began to recede I think it is fair to say that the market has reached bottom. What is the date of the exact bottom? Was it September of '09? December? Will it be March of '10? We will all be able to say with great certainty in about 3 years when we have the actual figures. The factsare that prices are lower now than they were at any time in the last 5 years, they have for the most part stopped going down, and interest rates are at historically low levels. Add in the various government incentives to buy such as First Time Homebuyer Credits, Move Up Homebuyer Credits, Energy Improvement Loans and more and now is a great time to buy regardless of whether or not it is the exact statistical bottom of the market.
Now, there will be properties that sell below their current asking price. A healthy and "in balance" real estate market will not occur until inventory levels fall further. But as new properties enter the market they are priced to reflect current market conditions and they sell in less time than those properties that are still clinging to 2006 price levels. In fact, for homes that actual sell (as opposed to being for sale) the median days on market has only risen by 14 days since 2006. From 103 median days on market in that year to 117 median days on market in 2009.
So while my friend who is waiting for the ultimate bottom of the market to make his fantasy purchase just may find a lower price, I'm not sure what his choices will be. Those folks who wish to purchase a home to actually live in and enjoy may want to make their choice from among the more salable homes coming on the market. My potential client, coming from out of state will find plenty of inventory to choose from right now and as the spring selling season approaches more homes coming on the market that are priced to sell.
If you or anyone you know is thinking of making a real estate purchase on Maine's mid coast, I strongly urge them to call an experienced, successful real estate professional to discuss actual facts and figures and how those facts and figures pertain to their own situation. You don't get your medical information from talk radio or cable tv, do you?
Jim Cosgrove
Recent Comments