I had an interesting conversation yesterday. A fellow I've known for sometime stopped in to the office. Said he wanted to see what was for sale in a specific price range and to "pick my brain" about the state of the real estate market in the Pemaquid Point area.
Well the picking of the brain didn't take too long, some will tell you there isn't that much up there anyway, but we did have a lot of properties to look at and I ran the whole list complete with pictures and related data off of the MLS site and printed them for him. His plan was to "drive by" these properties and check them out just so he'd be familiar with them but he made it plain that he had no intention of buying at this time. You see "he knows" that the market is going to go down further and he'll get a better deal in the future. "He knows" the market has not hit bottom and he has no intention of buying until it does so.
Now what you need to know about my friend is that in his former life he was an engineer. You may have heard that old saying about engineers; that if one person says the glass is half full and one person says the glass is half empty, the engineer says the glass was built too big. The point being that engineers tend to over think things.
I'm afraid he is going to get burned trying to time the bottom of the market. Whether or not we've hit bottom remains to be seen. We won't know where the bottom was until we're quite a ways past it. Just as we didn't know where the top of the market was when we were there. No one makes an announcement and says"today is the bottom, prices go up tomorrow". Years after the fact a government office or a trade organization will compile some statistics and tell us how long of a recession we were in, when the stock market went from bull to bear and back to bull and where the real estate market bottomed. Unlike the other two the real estate market is trickier. There is a mythological "national real estate market" that doesn't really exist. Each market area is its own separate market with it's own set of dynamics and factors that determine value. Sure interest rates and activity from other areas impact it but no two markets react exactly the same, unlike say the Dow Jones industrial average or the oil spot market.
My humble opinion is that the mid coast Maine real estate market has already turned. It's almost imperceptible right now. Just as at the moment the tide turns you can't tell. but it has turned. Here at Newcastle Square Realty we've certainly seen an upswing in calls and inquiries over the past 2 months. We've shown more homes, we've written more contracts, we've scheduled more closings. Are the statistics reflecting this? No not quite yet. It takes time for these things to show up in the stats. Rare is the property that closes less than 45 days after going under contract. But in the late fall as big bank after big bank was going under and Congress was debating different "rescue' plans and politicians were running for office, the things that are happening now were not happening.
Many of the better quality properties that saw big drops in price have already been sold in these past 2 months. There are still a lot of properties on the market and that does depress prices. But many of those that are out there have been on a long time and represent Sellers who have not made the mental shift to the new market reality. In other words they are priced for 2007 not 2009. By and large, those properties that have come on the market in the last 6 months have been realistically priced and a greater percentage of them have sold.
Interest rates are at a 50 year low. The government is giving first time home buyers an $8,000.00 tax credit that doesn't need to be re payed when they sell. Prices are at a 10 year low. Trying to time the market under those circumstances is...well as I gently tried to tell my friend, not a wise mans game.
Everyone in this business knows Sellers who got burned by holding on for a high price or pricing even higher than the market after what we now know was the peak. And everyone in this business is going to know a Buyer who tried to time the market and missed a good deal because they thought prices would go just a little bit lower. They may get a low price but they will miss the better properties or wind up with a higher interest rate or as I'm afraid will happen to my friend, have "analysis paralysis" and wind up doing nothing.
Right now is a very good time to buy property in Lincoln County, Maine. The glass is half full.
Jim Cosgrove
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